Roj Bash Kurdistan

Iraqi Kurds have went to vote in local elections recently. Given the timing of the elections and increasing tensions with Baghdad the prospect of an independent state is one that still has great allure to it.
As UPI recently reported Iraq's Kurdish province has recently undergone its fourth parliamentary elections since 1992 and transpired in a rather calm and orderly fashion, testament it seems to the developing state of democracy in that region. Iraq is a country that is still fraught with destructive and destabilizing sectarian violence – the situation today is as bad as it was during the worst periods of sectarian violence that plagued the country in 2008.

As Middle East Online illustrated in a recent report with an ever more centralized bureaucracy prevailing in Baghdad the question of the Iraqi Kurds opting for independence and statehood is one still one fresh on the minds of many of Iraq's Kurds. With their three-province region becoming more independent and self-reliant when it comes to economy, government and the export of oil, through Turkey, the allure of seeing the dream of an independent Kurdish state realized is as tangible as ever.

Whilst Baghdad is neglected by international oil companies Kurdistan is seeing to impressive development largely due to the vast oil revenues that region is getting through investments by many international energy consortium's.

Tensions between Baghdad and Arbil have increased considerably as of late with a senior leader of the Kurdish region, Nechirvan Barzani, insisting that the Iraqi Kurds have the right to export oil without the consent and oversight of the central government. The Baghdad government in turn is arguing that such a policy would constitute the smuggling of the country's resources. It instead wants to mitigate an independent Kurdish energy export policy by constructing a federal pipeline network controlled from Baghdad for the export of oil from the country.

With Kurdistan becoming an economic and political power of its own to be reckoned with tensions with Baghdad are consequently increasing. One particularly dangerous source of animosity between Arbil and Baghdad is stemming from the Kurdish Regional Governments claim that the Kirkuk oilfield is rightfully Kurdish – that oil field has a staggering one-third of Iraq's total oil reserves. The Kurdish authorities claim it is given the fact that it was part of Kurdistan during the time of the Ottomans and is therefore rightfully, as well as technically, within the confines of the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq today. This dispute has even seen to Baghdad dispatching tanks and deploying artillery on the southern border with Kurdistan. This state-of-affairs in turn constitutes one of the biggest threats to the stability and security of that country.

Barham Saleh, who used to be a regional Prime Minister in that region and himself a Kurd, outlined how he is proud of his heritage and Kurdish identity. “I very much would like to see an Iraqi state that is democratic – genuinely democratic – respectful of individual liberties, that makes us all proud to be Iraqi.” He added however that, “This Iraq is yet to be realized.”

The Kurds have essentially run their own autonomous region since the United States launched Operation Provide Comfort to protect the region from the wrath of the brutal and vicious Saddam Hussein regime in Baghdad which had butchered tens-of-thousands of Kurds. Since then it has been the most stable and democratic and open part of Iraq and has once again, through this free and open democratic election process, aptly demonstrated the continued success and functionality of Iraqi Kurdistan's democratic society. Whilst the rest of Iraq is unstable and violent and the government in Baghdad is continually insisting that the Kurds cede control over what they see as rightfully being theirs, hence oil and other resources in their soil, the realization of the dream of complete independence and statehood, particularly in light of the autonomous success they have had without Baghdad's assistance, may even have greater allure than before.

Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region is moving ever closer to declaring independence, thanks largely to its oil reserves of 45 billion barrels and increasingly close energy links with neighboring Turkey.

Iraq's central government is diametrically opposed to Kurdistan breaking away for fear it will encourage other federal regions to seek greater autonomy at Baghdad's expense, and can be expected to do all that it can to prevent that.

But the Kurdish enclave already operates like a de facto state with its own legislative, executive and judicial branches, its own army, and firm economic foundations provided by the oil and large reserves of natural gas as well.

Kurdistan is on the cusp of an oil boom, with international companies lining up to get a stake in the world's newest petrostate which since the 1990-91 Gulf War has enjoyed an unprecedented level of political and economic stability in a region where turmoil has long been the norm.

Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Total of France have all turned their backs on Baghdad, despite its vast energy riches, to develop Kurdistan's oil industry.

Other companies, like BP, are coming on to join around 40 small and medium-sized independents who set up several years to get exploration moving.

But Turkey's support is critical right now if the Kurds are to move forward toward the independence for which they battled Baghdad and Saddam Hussein's grotesque regime for decades, and suffered horrific losses in the process.

Saddam waged a scorched-earth genocidal war against the Kurds. The blackest day was March 16, 1988, when the Iraqi dictator's forces smothered the eastern town of Halabja with poison gas, massacring 5,000 men, women and children.

Now another showdown is steadily building between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, the Kurdish capital.

This one is focused on the Kurds' energy reserves and the KRG's claims that the Kirkuk oilfield of northern Iraq, which holds about one-third of Iraq's reserves of 150 billion barrels, is Kurdish because it was part of Kurdistan under the Ottomans.

Baghdad, which is scrapping with Erbil over oil revenues, will never surrender those fields and the prospect of conflict is real.

For now, though, the primary focus is the Kurdish fields, whose reserves are sure to expand once full-scale exploration gets under way.

Much to Baghdad's annoyance, the Kurds are currently exporting 30,000-40,000 barrels of oil per day by road tanker to Turkey, and then by sea from the Mediterranean port of Mersin.

But that will rise sharply when a Turkish consortium builds a new pipeline from Kurdistan's big Taq Taq and Tawke fields into Turkey, totally bypassing Baghdad's export pipelines. Exports could be boosted to 250,000 bpd, possibly rising to 400,000 bpd.

Under a wide-ranging energy partnership concluded earlier this year, Turkey, which has no energy resources of its own, could soon be importing 353 billion cubic feet of gas, about 20-25 percent of its annual consumption.

So far there's no infrastructure for delivering it, though analysts believe that could be remedied within 30 months.

For obvious reasons, these highly sensitive projects have been shrouded in considerable ambiguity since Ankara does not want to provoke Baghdad, or Iran, which increasingly dominates Baghdad -- not yet, anyway.

"Turkey and the KRG have been carefully avoiding a major confrontation with Baghdad while creating confusion over their projects in northern Iraq," the U.S. global intelligence consultancy Stratfor observed.

"The further Turkey goes in these energy endeavors with the Iraqi Kurds, the more resistance it will encounter from Baghdad -- and by extension, Iran...

"The KRG is even escalating the pressure... But a decision to bypass Baghdad-controlled infrastructure and receive payment for oil independent of the central government is one fraught with danger, and it is unlikely that Turkey is ready for that level of confrontation," Stratfor said.

Baghdad claims sole authority over all oil operations, from exploration to production and exports.

"The only acceptable option for oil exports is through the federal pipeline network," a senior Baghdad official stressed. "We consider any other trade, whether it be through Iran or Turkey, as smuggling. It's illegal."

Meantime, Baghdad government troops are locked in an armed confrontation with Kurdish forces along Kurdistan's southern border, including tanks and artillery. It's a standoff that the energy rivalry could ignite.