UK General Election 2017

[Anthea]

General election 2017

What our focus groups said

1. Voters notice most when the campaign confirms existing views

While commentators follow every twist and turn of the campaign, most “normal” people see very little. They notice campaign issues when these confirm existing views. Diane Abbott’s disastrous LBC interview chimed with voters’ belief that Labour was chaotic: “People in this position should have the correct answers when interviewed.” The Conservatives’ foxhunting announcement struck a chord, too, confirming long-held views that the party was “posh”: “It is absurd and is representative of how out of touch they are.” The extent to which the public are immune from stories gripping the Westminster bubble highlights how message discipline remains as important as ever.

2. Both leaders have changed voters’ minds through the campaign

When the election was called, voters told us that – unusually – they did not yet know much about either leader. Early impressions were generally very positive towards Theresa May and dismissive of Jeremy Corbyn. As the campaign has progressed, however, voters have begun to see chinks in May’s armour – “she’s so awkward and she speaks as if she’s swallowed the manifesto” – and have been surprised by Corbyn’s performance against low expectations – “I’ve been impressed by Jeremy, he’s a fighter”. Regardless of what happens on Thursday, both leaders will emerge from the campaign with a very different profile to the one they started with.

3. Labour’s party brand has changed, while the Conservatives’ has not

Back in 2015, we found a focus group “projective” technique very revealing. It involved asking voters what each party would cook if it were hosting Come Dine With Me. The Labour party, people said, would cook salmon en croute with craft beer – emblematic of a metropolitan Labour elite out of touch with its traditional roots. Now, voters choose more “ordinary” meals: spaghetti bolognese or egg and chips. Labour seems more authentically working-class than it has for a while: “It’s what they were founded on really, so they want to try and keep that tradition going.” On the other hand, despite May’s bid to represent “Jams” [just about managing], the Conservative brand is as resolutely “upper-class” as it was under Old Etonian David Cameron. Voters’ answer to the Come Dine With Me Tory question? “They’d cook game pie, having shot the pheasant themselves in their free time.”

4. The word ‘coalition’ is now toxic

The Conservative-Labour combined vote share is currently around 80% – its highest level for decades. This reflects the failure of Ukip and the Liberal Democrats to find arguments that resonate with the electorate. It is also driven by enduringly negative views of the 2010-15 government. When asked about possible election outcomes, voters are unambiguous that they fear nothing more than the prospect of a coalition. This is partly explained by the perceived need for a strong government to deal with Brexit, but is also based on past experience where “all that happened last time is that the Liberal Democrats sold out all their beliefs for a sniff of power”.

5. The fundamentals really haven’t changed

Although our research has tracked some of the ups and downs of the campaigns, the key indicators all still seem to point to Theresa May being returned to Downing Street. Post-analysis of our 2015 qualitative panels showed that seven out of 10 of voters’ spontaneous comments were about the leaders, indicating how crucial these views were to the ballot box decision. The campaign may have revealed May’s feet of clay but she remains by far the most trusted to tackle terrorism, lead upcoming Brexit negotiations and be a strong prime minister.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -and-votes

[Benny]

Many thanks for the link, very Interesting.

It's seems to be a bit more close than what one would have expected 7 weeks ago, right?

Either way, have a nice election day all of you in the UK!

/B

[Anthea]

Many thanks for the link, very Interesting.

It's seems to be a bit more close than what one would have expected 7 weeks ago, right?

Either way, have a nice election day all of you in the UK!

/B

Nobody can understand why 'MAD MAY' called this election

[Anthea]

he UK is waking up to a hung parliament:

The BBC is predicting a final score of
318 seats for the Conservatives, down 13 on 2015,
261 for Labour - up 29 seats,
35 seats for the SNP, a loss of 21 seats,

Absolute power corrupts absolutely

MAD MAY thought she was Erdogan and could do anything she wanted

[Piling]

Jacques Chirac, a former French president made the same mistake in 1997 : to shut up opposition he organized election and faced a "vague rose" with a socialist parliament. As people joked : he wanted to dissolve the National Assembly so he just dissolved his own party.

[Anthea]

Jacques Chirac, a former French president made the same mistake in 1997 : to shut up opposition he organized election and faced a "vague rose" with a socialist parliament. As people joked : he wanted to dissolve the National Assembly so he just dissolved his own party.

May to form 'government of certainty' with DUP backing

Theresa May has said she will put together a government with the support of the Democratic Unionists to guide the UK through crucial Brexit talks.

Speaking after visiting Buckingham Palace, she said only her party had the "legitimacy" to govern, despite falling eight seats short of a majority.

Later, she said she "obviously wanted a different result" and felt "sorry" for colleagues who lost their seats.

But Labour said they were the "real winners".

The Lib Dems said Mrs May should be "ashamed" of carrying on.

The Tories needed 326 seats to win another majority but they fell short and must rely on the DUP to continue to rule.

In a short statement outside Downing Street after an audience with the Queen, Mrs May said she would join with her DUP "friends" to "get to work" on Brexit.

Referring to the "strong relationship" she had with the DUP but giving little detail of how their arrangement might work, she said she intended to form a government which could "provide certainty and lead Britain forward at this critical time for our country".

"Our two parties have enjoyed a strong relationship over many years," she said.

"And this gives me the confidence to believe that we will be able to work together in the interests of the whole United Kingdom."

It is thought Mrs May will seek some kind of informal arrangement with the DUP that could see it "lend" its support to the Tories on a vote-by-vote basis, known as "confidence and supply".

Later, she told reporters that she had "wanted to achieve a larger majority but that was not the result".

"I'm sorry for all those candidates... who weren't successful, and also particularly sorry for MPs and ministers who'd contributed so much to our country, and who lost their seats and didn't deserve to lose their seats.

"As I reflect on the results, I will reflect on what I need to do in the future to take the party forward."

DUP leader Arlene Foster confirmed that she had spoken to Mrs May and that they would speak further to "explore how it may be possible to bring stability to this nation at this time of great challenge".

While always striving for the "best deal" for Northern Ireland and its people, she said her party would always have the best interests of the UK at heart.

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has since sought assurances from Mrs May that any deal with the DUP will not affect LGBTI rights across the UK. Northern Ireland is the only part of the UK where same-sex marriage is not legal.

A source close to Ms Davidson, who is gay, told the BBC: "The PM needs to remember there are more Scottish Conservatives than DUP MPs."

Who are the DUP?

The DUP are pro-union (not Europe but UK), pro-Brexit and socially conservative.

The party, which returned 10 MPs to Westminster, has garnered a reputation for its strong, sometimes controversial views.

It opposes same-sex marriage and is anti-abortion - abortion remains illegal in Northern Ireland, except in specific medical cases.

One MP is a devout climate change denier, while a former MP once called for creationism - the belief that human life did not evolve over millions of years but was created by God - to be taught alongside evolution in science classes.

During the election campaign, the DUP's Emma Little-Pengelly was endorsed by the three biggest loyalist paramilitary organisations.

[Benny]

"During the election campaign, the DUP's Emma Little-Pengelly was endorsed by the three biggest loyalist paramilitary organisation."

I didn´t realize that the paramilitaries were still active up there!

/B