Coldest winter for 50 YEARS heavy snow for months in UK

[Anthea]

Coldest winter for 50 YEARS set to bring MONTHS of heavy snow to UK

BRITAIN is facing the most savage winter in more than 50 years with months of heavy snowfall and bitter Arctic winds set to bring the country to a total standstill.

Forecasters have warned Britain faces a repeat of the devastating winter of 1962/63

Sub-zero temperatures and violent snow storms could hit as soon as late October as a freak ocean cooling in the Atlantic threatens to trigger a historic, nationwide whiteout.

Emergency services have been warned to prepare for a repeat of the devastating 1962/63 winter which saw rivers and lakes freeze over across Britain.

The shock warnings have also sparked fears Britain could face fuel and food shortages as roads and transport networks grind to a halt.

Meteorologists and oceanographers warn plunging ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are at the root of the crisis.

Temperatures in the Gulf Stream - the warm ocean current which runs up the east coast of America - have plummeted over the past year.

The stream merges into the North Atlantic Drift which normally pushes warm water towards the west coast of the United Kingdom.

However a drastic reduction in speed and temperature of the current has left Britain without any buffer to a bitter Arctic influx.

Experts fear a repeat of the worst winter in history which saw temperatures plunge to near -20C in January 1963 causing the sea to freeze off the Kent coast.

That went on to be the coldest month since January 1814, with an average temperature of −2.1C.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the Gulf Stream has been rapidly winding down over the past 12 months.

He said experts had feared an especially severe winter last year after signs emerged during the autumn.

However a ‘lag effect’ helped narrowly dodge a crippling whiteout although this winter now threatens to bring the much-feared mega-freeze.

Mr Madden said the big chill could start to tighten its grip as soon as next month thanks in part to abnormally low solar activity.

He said: “October is likely to see a real chill at times in terms of temperatures due to below-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and a virtually non-existent Gulf Stream.

“This is of some real significance to us in terms of future weather patterns and this is also likely to result in a much colder than average November with the first significant snow of the year in parts of the north.

“There will also be some snow to much lower levels of the country at times within this period, and even parts of the south could see some early snow before we enter December this year.”

He said although the Gulf Stream started to show signs of weakening last year Britain the effects missed being strong enough to adversely affect the winter.

However the coming months are is showing signs of putting 2015/16 into the record books for all the wrong reasons.

Mr Madden said: “The Gulf Stream started showing signs of waning towards the end of last year, and it should have impacted our winter with some much colder and snowier conditions than it actually did.

“However there is an important lag effect with this process that should be taken very seriously for later this autumn and for the upcoming winter of 2015/16, the overall situation has worsened.

“This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how this heats this vital ocean current, and even more so as to how it impacts our long term weather patterns in terms of blocking and frequent cold incursions.

“Exceptional winds are also part and parcel of these Gulf Stream changes and this is also something that will be problematic at times throughout the upcoming autumn and winter periods once again.”

Scientists say part of the problem could be due to the melting Greenland ice cap allowing huge volumes of fresh water to flood into the North Atlantic.

Fresh water floats on top of the ocean saltwater hindering the normal currents which are driven by a constant sinking of cold water to the ocean bed.

This has slowed down the pace at which the Gulf Stream channels warm water from the Caribbean, up the coast of the US, and to north Europe.

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent.

This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter.

Professor Rahmstorf said: “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD.

“We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”

The Met Office said after an unsettled few weeks ahead temperatures will dip below average as we head into October.

A spokesman said: “More settled conditions are possible late in September and into October but many places will still be likely to see some rain.

“Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below normal throughout.”

The UK climate this winter could also be nudged out of kilter by what is shaping up to be the strongest El Nino ever recorded.

The phenomenon, which sees ocean temperatures rise in the eastern Pacific, can result in colder winters in the UK and northern Europe.

If fears are realised then this year could see a repeat of some of the worst winters in British history leading to disruption at airports, on railways and on the roads.

It also means the emergency services risk being stretched to breaking point with harsh weather responsible for thousands of deaths annually.

In 1963 snow blanketed much of England and Wales for weeks while there reaches of the River Thames froze.

Crippling blizzards whipped up 20-feet deep snow drifts with freezing Arctic gales unleashing winds of more than 100mph in parts.

A similar whiteout in 1946/47 led to fuel and food shortages before a March thaw brought devastating floods and caused billions of pounds of damage.

Forecasters had expected colder conditions over the past two which turned out to be milder, albeit stormier than average.

This year could see volatile conditions coupled with plunging temperatures trigger one of the most severe winters on record.

Jud Partin, research associate at the University of Texas Institute of Geophysics, warned Britain and northern Europe could be shivering in years to come thanks to ocean cooling.

He said: “A slowdown of the ocean circulation is a double-edged sword.

“If we see some temperature changes associated with it … and somehow are quick to act and alleviate the change, then we have the potential to stop it.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/60 ... now-freeze

[Anthea]

Britain to face ARCTIC WINTER as mild autumn triggers polar gales and heavy snow

BRITAIN is edging closer to an ARCTIC FREEZE with blizzards, record low temperatures and polar gales set to cripple the country in weeks.

Scientists have re-issued stark warnings ahead of what some have claimed is set to be the coldest winter for a century.

They said a lengthy spell of extreme and potentially devastating weather is just around the corner partly thanks to the unusually mild autumn.

Looking at air flow in the upper atmosphere to produce an index called the October Pattern Index (OPI ) experts have said everything points towards a negative Arctic Oscillation this winter.

The resulting weak jet stream, which usually holds the cold at bay over the North Pole, will give way to a blast of freezing air which will sweep across the UK.

Experts expect this by the middle of November with snowstorms and numbing Arctic gales set to wreak havoc at airports and on the country’s transport systems.

The OPI was devised by Italian scientists Riccardo Valente and Professor Judah Cohen with this year’s readings dangerously similar to those taken during the catastrophic winter of 2009/10 - the coldest in 31 years.

The findings support recent claims that this winter could be one of the worst in decades.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: “We are reaching a stage where the final OPI value is currently at -2.43.

“Anything below -1.5 correlates highly with a blocked winter pattern of cold and snow for the UK.

“It appears to correlate well with a scenario similar to the winter of 2009/10 at the very least.

“In addition to this the Siberian snow cover is also well ahead of schedule and is another strong signal for a harsh winter based on previous studies for a negative Arctic Oscillation for the December to March period.

“The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10, the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.”

Jim Dale, forecaster for British Weather Services, said the unusually mild autumn weather is an indicator of a harsh winter ahead.

He said the climate often follows a “balancing” pattern where periods of unusually warm or cold weather are followed by the direct opposite.

He said: “We could see a sharp difference as the winter unfolds, this mild weather could bring a false sense of security.

“There is always another side to the coin and in the long run on the balance of probability we could see a very different picture.

“I am not sure about a record winter, but certainly things have a way of balancing out.”

Mr Madden warned to brace for a “shock to the system” with a “significant” snow event possible in weeks.

He said: “As we progress throughout November, it will begin to turn gradually cooler, in particular, within the second half of the month as blocking becomes a more prominent feature and the jet stream diverts further south.

“This will be due to expanding cold from the Arctic region, and this will also allow for the development of some much colder intrusions of air and snow for the UK.

“Some of the snow events are likely to be quite significant with blizzards across higher ground, and a number of potentially notable snow events are also possible across some lower levels within this period, in particular, in some exposed coastal areas to the north and west of the country.

“We are also likely to see the development of some widespread frosts and rather extensive fog patches across the country within this period, and this will come as quite a shock to what we have experienced throughout this autumn to date.

“However, some spikes of milder conditions may also develop within this period, in particular, in some parts to the south of the country, and these will be accompanied by some rather windy and quite stormy conditions at times.”

Full Article - Photos:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/52 ... s-forecast

[Londoner]

That is not surprising!!! We had a hottest summer. So now it is time to have a coldest winter, which I prefer over hot summer. It boils my brain but when it is freezing cold I can work 24 hours none stop.