How does the PUK-Gorran deal affect Kurdish politics?

[Anthea]

How does the PUK-Gorran deal affect Kurdish politics?

EXTREMELY BADLY

An almost motionless Jalal Talabani, the legendary leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) who narrowly survived a tough brain stroke in late 2012, struggled to stay alert while an odd political marriage was being tied under his comatose gaze.

The new deal between the PUK and the Change Movement (Gorran), signed on Tuesday, would have in fact been nearly unimaginable only two years ago, as the two parties could not even agree on the post of governor in a city like Sulaimani, which both see as their stronghold.

Gorran, a splinter party which broke away from the PUK in 2009 and steadily grew larger than its parent party, has been loudly profiling against the PUK and the other ruling faction, the powerful Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).

In fact, the new group called itself simply the Change Movement, to demonstrate that it was against the ruling establishment, which Gorran had no intention to cooperate with.

The KDP and PUK, on the other hand, have repeatedly accused Gorran of being an opportunist party with no real political agenda other than its populist slogans. They say most of the senior members in Gorran, including its veteran leader Nawshirwan Mustafa, have been powerful officials in the establishment for decades and any deficiency in the political system is inevitably their responsibility too.

The KDP-led government in 2013 entered negotiations with Gorran and agreed on a broad-based cabinet in which Gorran had hefty positions, including the ministries of finance, Peshmerga as well as the post of parliament speaker -- while the PUK also held top positions in the same government.

Nevertheless, the honeymoon between the three parties was short-lived when Baghdad cut the $1 billion monthly pay to the Kurdistan Region in early 2014, leaving the Kurdish government with colossal debts to pay its nearly 1.5 million employees. And as the oil prices dropped quickly over the coming year, so did the level of relations between Gorran and the KDP.

The latter then accused Gorran of the street riots in several cities where angry protesters stormed KDP offices and killed three of their members.

Days later, the KDP fired Gorran’s three ministers along with its parliament speaker in retaliation for the deadly anti-government unrests over delayed salaries, which the KDP accused Gorran of masterminding.

Tuesday’s strategic pact between the PUK and Gorran has received much attention because of the impact it could trigger next year when voters go to the ballot boxes again.

According to the new deal the PUK and Gorran will run in the 2017 general elections on the same ballot, which could also effectively disturb the decade-old alliance between the PUK and KDP.

The PUK was quick to give assurances to the KDP that the new deal would have no impact on their relations; but the KDP was less convinced as it denounced the deal on Wednesday.

The KDP currently holds 38 seats in the parliament while Gorran and PUK have 24 and 18, respectively.

This means that KDP would need the support of the two Islamic parties for next year’s elections to form a new government.

The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) and the Kurdistan Islamic Society (KIS), which have traditionally been close to the KDP, have currently 10 and 6 seats in the parliament respectively.

It remains to be seen how the three main parties will play their cards before next year’s elections, but surprises are to count with the ever-changing region.

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/19052016